There has been much talk about an AHL hockey team being brought into St. John's. I think people in the Capital Region are mostly in favor of an AHL team being based in Mile One. And now, on the eve of what appears to be an announcement regarding the Atlanta Thrashers moving to Winnipeg, the displaced Manitoba Moose affords the very real opportunity for a St. John's group to pick up an AHL franchise.
HOWEVER... a professional North American sports franchise coming to St.John's, from a business standpoint has some unique challenges. The biggest of these challenges is the fact that St. John's is on an island and requires teams to fly in and out for games and player call ups at an additional expense.
Another challenge would be having a relatively small market, about a quarter million in the capital region. However this market size is one that compares with many other AHL markets. And, this AHL franchise being the only pro sports team competing for our sports entertainment dollar causes St. John's to compete with larger markets that also have football and other sports entertainment venues that would compete with an AHL Team. While there are no guarantees in sports franchise success, this team would be coming in to a strong and prospering hockey market which wants to have this entertainment choice available to them over the fall and winter months.
Additionally, the product would need to be a good one... well run and well marketed and owned by a group of people who are committed to the franchise developing in this particular area. This factor in the acquisition, from information available, is addressed by bringing home an experienced AHL General Manager to run the team in this market... AND... this challenge is addressed by Danny Williams being a large player in the group trying to bring the AHL to St. John's. Danny Williams is without a doubt committed to Newfoundland and Labrador and the Capital Region, and has certainly proven himself to be very successful at whatever he puts his hand to. On that basis I would concede that this challenge is met and most likely overcome.
BUT... I think the reality of this situation is that St. John's, being considered for an AHL franchise, is primarily because of this group being from "here" and wanting to put a sports franchise "here". I doubt if this same group would be trying to get this AHL franchise to put it into Thunder Bay or Halifax. This group wants AHL hockey brought home but it would follow, that since they are business people, they would like to make a profit. Further, they are successful business people and they and cannot bring themselves to get involved in a business which "on paper" has very tight margins and most likely will lose money especially during the initial growing pains. As well, this may be a hard sell to the AHL as a whole since having the additional transportation costs of coming to St. John's may be hard to stomach.
THEREFORE... this business group, sees it as unlikely, that the franchise profits would be able to cover all additional travel costs associated with travel to St. John's. This resulted in a request for a travel subsidy from the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador, for $500,000 annually to make the St. John's bid for this franchise a sound choice from an AHL league business perspective. The logic being, that the government, while naturally preferring not to subsidize sports franchises, would choose to offer this subsidy, a relatively small sum, on the basis that spin off tax revenue would make up for the expenditure and that having a professional sports franchise in St. John's would showcase our location to the rest of North America and increase our attractiveness from a location to live and situate businesses.
SURPRISE... Politics, while known for being slow to make decisions and take action on anything... said "NO! and this is an easy decision!" to this opportunity with blazing speed.
Is it because this government is broke? "NO"
Is it becuase this government has no vision? "NO, or at least they say they have vision".
Is it because they are not into offering subsidies to businesses to relocate to NL?
"NO... they've done lots of this as have many governments before this one".
Is it because they are stupid? "NO... even though the primary critieria for politics is popularity... this decision would be popular enough that it most likely enhance their polling and they most likely know that".
Is it because an important player in the AHL proposition is the former premier who is currently not getting along with the government? "??? ... the current premier says NO but the former premier says YES... I know who I believe!"
Is it that this government believes it will not get back sufficient additional tax revenue from having an AHL team in the Capital Region? "??? The current premier... says nobody has made that case and she needs to see the business plan... the former premier says the numbers are a 'no brainer' and would put back 10 times the $500,000 requested back into the provincial coffers"
While I have not seen any specifics on this business deal, I am a businessman and financial analyst, and I strongly suspect that the amount of $500,000 would easily be recouped to the province annually in new tax revenues and job creation not to mention the enhancement of the Capital Region as a place to come to live and do business."
IN CONCLUSION... this is a NO BRAINER... except for the fact that politics and personalities have muddied the waters. I believe that this group who wants to put an AHL team here are not looking to get rich on this, but neither are they looking to take a beating on this deal. I also believe that our provincial government knows that an AHL team would enhance the region and the province and the recouping of the $500,000 is an extremely reasonable prediction. The problem here is that the current government, for reasons which seem linked to the former premier's role in this proposition, does not want to put financial support behind this enterprise.
VERY UNFORTUNATE... an opportunity may be missed here... UNLESS... this business group's patriotism propels them to take on even greater than sensible financial risk... OR... this government decides to overcome its apparent pettiness and step up and make a decision which appears to be in the best interests of the people.
