NL and Canada 2011

Well Danny is gone. He certainly took aim at the federal powers that be.

The reactions here at home were typical:

"Way to go Danny!", "Give 'em another smack for me!"

OR

"How can you expect to get anything from Ottawa if you keep challenging them like that?"

The next phase in our history of co-operation is about to get under way with Premier Kathy Dunderdale. She has already had some interaction with the feds and she indicated that she is willing to be 'co-operative' but quick to add that 'we will not be kicked around'. Seems to be the perfect balance. NL wants to be seen as 'a team player' but wants clearly to reaffirm we are nobody's 'door mat'.

So what is in front of us?

We are definitely heading into a general election in NL and there is at least a 50% chance of there being a Federal general election. Kathy hopes to put this leadership thing behind her soon and get on with winning a general election. Stevie, a machiavellian if there ever was one, hopes this time he can get a majority government in Ottawa to 'rule' with even greater impunity.

The Canadian powerhouse which is the province of Ontario will be looking for change this time around. Look at who they elected to run the city of Toronto! PQ has felt the pain of the recent economic global meltdown and the resulting job losses. The west is still the west but they too have had their cages rattled pretty hard and their long term perspective must be a little less certain on a go forward basis. Atlantic Canada, well, in truth Atlantic Canada has not mattered that much politically in the past, may now become much more important as it seems getting 20 or 25 seats in Atlantic Canada could determine who gets to run the country. We know NL can direct its vote in one way or another as evidenced by ABC last time. Maybe this time the few seats we got might actually matter more than ever.

By the way, the single biggest political lesson that Stephen Harper could learn from the elections since Mulrooney is that PQ is not where you need to go to find additional seats. You can give them everything and suck up to them in every way possible and the Bloc is still going to come out of there with around two-thirds to three-quarter of the seats. In fact, maybe taking the stance of treating everybody in Canada the same, including PQ, might get you a bunch of seats in ON and in the West and would certainly resonate well in Atlantic Canada and NL in particular. But what about separation? Well the truth in all of this is PQ, politically speaking, is already gone, and it may be more encumbent on Canada to get a backbone so that the rest of the provinces can have something to latch on to.

This may be too big a leap for Canada. Most likely that is the case. So, how does NL play its cards then? Maybe, for the purpose of this brief exploration, we can assume that the PC party will regain the right to lead our government after the next election. So what would Kathy want to put on her wish list from Ottawa to try and sway our few seats in a specific direction?

Maybe a national energy grid and open transmission of electricity through PQ? There I go again. Asking too much means you might get nothing.

Maybe we could look at being able to have majority management rights of our fishery to the edge of the continental shelf? Darn, I gotta stop doing that... asking too much means you might get nothing!

What about getting the same share of our off shore oil royalties as does Alberta and Saskatchewan? I think that I am still asking for too much and risking getting nothing.

Well, what about a fixed link to Canada like PEI has constructed? That would be a big project costing big dollars... maybe that is too much to ask for also since we just got new ferries and too much tourism access to NL could mean less for other provinces.

What about getting massive funding, over and above what has already been requested, to allow Lower Churchill power to be shippped to the Island and then to Atlantic Canada? Well, that might be risky too since PQ has already indicated they think we would be getting unfair financial support to help economic development???

Maybe we could ask for a federal penitentiary in NL? Well, that does not seem like asking for the moon but it is very costly and Ottawa just announced a bunch of additional funding to address increased incarceration demands and NL was not on the list of sites for new infrastructure, so Stevie might have a hard time with giving in to us on that one, seeing how he never goes back on his word?

I think I may have figured out what we could ask for? We could ask for a few more senate seats for Conservative die-hards so that at least some extra tax revenue could come to NL. I guess then if Stevie is agreeable to that the only question become who gets the jobs? Any takers? Hey kathy, you must know somebody who is a long time political type, who maybe is in a job that they really don't want, and already has worked closely with some of the senators up there... and is sort of keeping their options open?

O My... ranting like this... does it really matter?... only to blow off a little steam I spose... ahh... relief...

I heard it said that "change happens when the pain of where you are is greater than the pain of where you need to go".

NO doubt NL is suffering, even though we seem more prosperous lately.

Certainly Canada is suffering, but it seems to have fared much better than the rest of the 'western world' during the recent economic melt down.

So I guess that means more pain is needed in order to get any 'real change'.

O Joy! More Pain...Just what 2011 needs to hold for NL and Canada. Does anybody really care?